As negotiators begin preparations for the 28th,th The importance of the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP28) is high. why? The meeting, which begins in November, aims to assess countries’ overall progress towards meeting the Paris Agreement goal of limiting global temperature rise to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels by 2050. Because it concludes the global stocktake that has been done.
- The conference concludes a global assessment of countries’ overall progress towards the goals of the Paris Agreement. But, predictably, there is no agreed course of action as to what would happen if it became clear that countries were lagging behind.
- Last year’s COP meeting in Egypt showed how fragile the process is, even as it agreed on “loss and damage” for vulnerable countries and accelerated progress in developing climate finance.
- Dubai’s all-important COP28 preparations are already underway, and phasing out oil and gas use is likely high on the agenda.
No one expects the assessments launched at COP26 in Glasgow two years ago to conclude that the planet is doing well. It is already known that many countries’ National Climate Change Plans, or Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), fall short of what is needed. But the key question is what will be done to keep Paris alive. There is no agreed course of action for what happens next. Negotiators must find a way forward before the conference takes place just nine months from now.
Jaakko Kooroshy, Global Head of Sustainable Investment Research, London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG), said: “Also, some large emerging economies, such as India, have very low emissions today, well below 2 degrees Celsius, despite their rapidly increasing emissions. , many other economies are adjusting to 3 degrees or higher, and in some cases closer to 4 degrees.In countries like Australia and Canada, new efforts are needed.” He warned that national climate reduction policies as a whole have yet to reach the necessary scale and pace.
Although countries’ current climate policies are gradually aligned with their 2030 pledges, they still point to warming levels of 2.8°C on average, undercutting the targets needed to meet the Paris Agreement targets. far below.
Progress at COP27
See COP27 for evidence of vulnerability in climate change negotiations. Many negotiators expressed frustration that the conference had not gone further to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, so the conference would be at least as hard hit by the climate disaster as its recent promises. reached a historic agreement to provide “loss and damage” financing to vulnerable countries.
However, it also creates the risk of losing confidence in negotiations in the future if developed countries do not honor their commitments. Another bright spot is the development of climate finance tools. Tessa Walsh, ESG Financing Editor at IFR, said: “When you look at loss and damage, it all hinges on adaptation. How can we help businesses face the worst impacts of climate change? “Funding for adaptation has traditionally been the responsibility of governments, and a key question is how to channel private sector capital into adaptation. How do you get that funding where you need it, often in high-risk areas?”
Key Topics in Energy Transitions at COP28
Heading into COP28 in the United Arab Emirates, the geographic center of the world’s hydrocarbon industry, the topic of the energy transition is sure to be on the agenda.
Many countries are now looking for ways to tell the story of their energy transition plans and raise money to bring them to life, with Middle Eastern countries’ plans particularly controversial.
“There is a lot of skepticism about fossil-fuel-dependent economies and how they will approach the transition,” Walsh said. “Are they going to do it with good intentions, or are they not? The whole debate about greenwashing was probably chilling to some of those countries. If so, we need their participation and we have to find acceptable ways to keep them actively involved in the process.”
Carbon reduction target
Broadly speaking, there is room for optimism about the world’s progress towards the Paris goals. Some developed countries do not have sufficiently ambitious policies for 2030, but have more impressive carbon reduction ambitions for 2050. And some emerging economies are doing much more than suggested in the NDCs to reduce their carbon emissions by 2030.
“There is some scope for some of these developing countries to be more ambitious,” Courossi says. “Our sense is that some of them are holding out negotiations about what they get in return. And that’s probably where some of these bargaining points reside.”
Tough negotiations are expected ahead of the important COP.